“Weebs go to Japan, Femcels go to South Korea” - Ancient Asian Proverb (source unknown)
You may have heard birthrates are down. Nearly everywhere. East and West. North and South. If a nation has reached a reasonable level of development people are rapidly slowing down their reproduction pace.
Five years ago this was a fringe talking point amongst hyper-online demographics nerds. Now the fertility discussion is making its way into the mainstream. Despite Elon Musk’s best efforts to impregnate the world and become a modern day Genghis Khan, nobody seems to have a great solution to stop the momentum of population decline. All across the globe, countries are setting new record lows in the birthrate department.
This month, I spent a few weeks in Ground Zero for the depopulation crisis. Seoul, South Korea. Where the Total Fertility Rate just hit a new low of 0.54 children per woman.
To put in to perspective how staggering that TFR number is, if you were to run a crude population simulation assuming zero immigration there’d be almost nobody left after a few generations. A population of 10M turns into 20k 150 years later.
Now that’s a bit exaggerated because we’re dealing with a city that regularly has a flux of people moving in and out for work, but when the surrounding areas are also at low-birth rates you will start running out of people to relocate there.
Korean President Yoon has also probably seen the numbers ran out. It presents a pretty grim future for a country that has historically been very hostile to foreign immigration.
Last week an official Demographic National Emergency was declared by the government. What exactly the ramifications are of such an emergency declaration remains unclear. I don’t think they’ll be rounding up people like stallions and mares in to mating prisons just yet. They’ll probably try some sort of combination of economic incentives and expanded child care for working couples. Will it work? Who knows.
There have been many attempts to diagnose why Korea birthrates dropped so sharply in the last 60 years. Most theories center around a culture that abandoned work-life balance, forces children into ultra competitive schooling systems, and prioritized wealth accumulation and consumption over the formation of families. There’s also the looming specter of war that creates a cloud of fear over the whole nation. The DMZ sits just 30 miles north of Seoul, at any time the conflict could heat up again with North Korea.
It will be an interesting case study for the rest of the world. How do you deal with an aging and declining population? Can you hold the line on immigration with low birthrates? Will they be able to automate themselves out of economic collapse, or will the growth of the last 50 years be exposed as simply an intergenerational population Ponzi?
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A few takeaways from my time in Seoul. A city I really enjoyed, and hope will continue to exist in the future.
1) A Safe Place Where Things Work
If Modern Seoul is truly the “end of humanity” its an endgame of docile urban convenience.
The infrastructure is solid, the transit system can get you anywhere, Metro WiFi works well, more coffee shops than almost any city in the world. Hungry? Walk into any random no-frills restaurant and you can get a very solid meal for somewhere between $5-10.
The level of safety is almost a bit jarring at times as an outsider. In New York, in public you’re constantly sizing up threats. Stuff like "is the guy on the subway muttering to himself gonna try to steal my phone? I should move it to my other pocket”. There’s a baseline level of vigilance that you become accustomed to which in Korea you can just drop entirely.
People leave their laptops in cafes unattended, guys will leave expensive camera equipment sitting on a bench. There’s so little fear of theft.
2) Many Western Women
Walking around touristy areas of the city, you find an inordinate amount of western women who are either alone, travelling with a girl friend, or with their Korean boyfriend. It seems the K-wave of cultural exports has turned Seoul into a trendy destination for many girls. It’s not quite SE-Asia levels of male passport bro sleaze, but they appear to be drawn in based on some idealistic fantasy of what Korea and Korean men are like.
Prior to coming here my knowledge of Korean pop culture mostly consisted of “Gangnam Style” and a few movies. After being exposed to K-Pop now though I can see the appeal. Coming from the USA, its refreshing to see a nation still lifting up young skinny coquettes as idols.
3) Rampant Consumerism
Korea is to some degree an entire country of “New Money”. They spent the first half of the 20th century subjugated under Japan imperial rule, and then much of the second half rebuilding from the Korean War. Food was so hard to come by that the phrase “Have you eaten?” became a common greeting that people still use today. The same way someone in English would ask “How are you?” as a polite gesture expecting a reply of “good” not a life story.
Now that the economy is humming along, the modern Korean engages in a cycle of work, work, work, spend, spend, spend. For a fun outing of people watching, go to a mall and just watch the consumption. Consumer chains that in America are dying off are finding a second life in Korea. If you miss Quiznos Subs, come to Seoul, there’s many thriving locations.
4) Very Low Sexual Energy
This is harder to get a read on without understanding the language, but you don’t get the sense there’s a lot of casual sex going on. That vibe of youthful vigor between men and women is lacking.
It feels more rooted in general disinterest, than a prudish conservativism. Like there’s one side of radfem men-avoiders and another of frustrated incels that are just opting out of the dating game and pulling further and further apart from each other.
5) Debunking The “Soldier Theory”
I’ve seen an idea thrown out there that bringing back mandatory military service in America would be good for social relations and family formation. The gist of the theory is we need to take a generation “soibois” and send them to war to harden them up and make them strong masculine figures that women desire and can lead a household. It’s a strange delusion that you can somehow reverse engineer the baby boom and recreate 1950s style pairing patterns via military action.
In Seoul you will run in to off-duty soldiers all the time. Coming and going on the metro, eating out at restaurants. Every able-bodied man is required to do a few years of compulsory military service.
Alas, it has not done anything to help the male-female relations within the country. A lot of the soldiers themselves seem like typical nerdy Asian guys forced into a national duty. They’ll be playing video games on their phone like the rest of the young men. There’s a limit to how much “hardening” up boot camp is really going to do.
6) Heavy Drinking Culture
When you think of drinking countries, places like Ireland or Russia probably come to mind initially. I was surprised to find out that Koreans actually consume more liquor than almost anywhere.
While the imported booze is taxed and will cost you a good amount, local Soju is some of cheapest alcohol you can find in the developed world. Standard 360mL bottle of 16-20% ABV will run you less than $1.50 and have 4-5 drinks worth of liquor. With packs of cigarettes costing $3, Seoul is a very economical place to place to be a chain-smoking alcoholic
You can really feel the pull of the weekend here. One of the most powerful shifts in relaxation and revelry on Friday evenings I’ve seen in any city. Stressed salarymen (and women) turning on consumer mode and cracking open bottles with delight.
I came across quite a few people, both in and out of bar districts, that were passed out asleep in public at night. Not homeless bums, normal guys sleeping off a night of drinking until the metro reopened in the morning.
I don’t know if the negative correlation between excessive drinking and family formation is real or meaningful. But the heavy level of boozing is probably not conducive to responsibly raising kids.
