La Nina has returned—but this time, it’s weak and likely short-lived. La Nina is known as the cooler, sometimes more disruptive counterpart to El Nino, influencing weather patterns around the globe. Meteorologists announced on Thursday that La Nina conditions are now present, but unlike more intense episodes, this one may not unleash significant impacts due to its mild nature and brief duration.
In the United States, La Nina often brings increased precipitation in northern states, including potential snowstorms, while southern regions typically experience drier winters. Globally, this weather pattern tends to cause heavier rainfall in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, parts of Australia, Central America, northern South America, and southeastern Africa. Conversely, it can trigger drought conditions in areas such as the Middle East, eastern Argentina, eastern China, Korea, and southern Japan. These diverse effects underscore how La Nina impacts various regions differently based on geography and climate.
But here’s where it gets controversial: La Nina arises when the central Pacific Ocean cools by about 0.5 degrees Celsius (or 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal. This year, conditions flirted with La Nina for months before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed it on Thursday. However, experts, including Michelle L’Heureux from NOAA, warn this event looks particularly weak and could vanish within a few months—a forecast supported by several computer models from NOAA and Columbia University.
“There’s a 75% chance it will remain a weak event,” L’Heureux explained. “Weaker La Nina episodes usually exert less control over global weather patterns, so we might still see some surprising developments.”
And this is the part most people miss: The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already confounded expectations. Initially predicted to be more active due to La Nina's usual influence—specifically the reduction in wind shear that typically helps hurricanes strengthen—it has instead been slightly below average so far. University of Albany’s hurricane expert Brian Tang describes how La Nina normally allows more and stronger storms later in the season, especially around late October to early November in the Caribbean. Yet, the usual rule seems shaky this time.
Adding to the debate, Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami argues this La Nina has arrived too late and is too weak to drive significant hurricane activity. Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University notes that while the environmental setup should favor more hurricanes, they haven't materialized as expected, and future forecasts don’t predict much formation in the near term either.
Looking back, last winter featured a similarly feeble La Nina, though some impacts were still visible, L’Heureux points out. There’s also an important economic perspective to consider: studies reveal La Nina’s drought effects in the U.S. can be more damaging than El Nino's warmer phases. For example, a 1999 analysis estimated that droughts linked to La Nina cost U.S. agriculture between $2.2 billion and $6.5 billion—substantially more than the $1.5 billion cost tied to El Nino.
Research scientist Azhar Ehsan of Columbia University highlights that while cold La Nina events are not always the costliest, they often are, emphasizing the substantial agricultural and economic stakes involved.
So here's a bold question for readers: Given that these weather phenomena don’t always follow the typical playbook, should we rethink how heavily we rely on traditional La Nina predictions to prepare for hurricanes and droughts? How do you weigh the economic risks when science still wrestles with forecasting such complex patterns?
Feel free to share your thoughts and experiences—do you agree that this La Nina might be too weak to matter much, or is there a hidden danger we’re overlooking?
[Image caption: Rising waves flood near the beach as Hurricane Priscilla strengthens by the port of San Blas, Nayarit, Mexico, on October 7, 2025. Photo by Christian Ruano/REUTERS]
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